Poll: Denish leads GOP field in 2010 election

Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish leads all five Republican gubernatorial candidates in a new poll released by Public Policy Polling -- although it appears Pete Domenici Jr is within striking distance.

Denish leads Domenici by five percentage points, 45-40, but holds much wider margins against the rest of the Republican field.

“Even in this hostile political climate, Diane Denish holds a lead against all of her potential opponents," Denish campaign Communications Director Chris Cervini said in a news release. "That’s because New Mexicans view her as an independent voice and a champion for middle-class families and their jobs."

But, considering the poll's 3.1 percent margin of error a possible Denish-Domenici race is essentially a dead heat. Of course that race isn't even finalized. While Denish is running unchallenged, Domenici still needs to collect a minimum of 20 percent of his party's pre-primary delegates and win the June 1st primary.

Denish polls 18 percentage points higher than Allen Weh, 48-30 percent, and by 14 percentage points over state Rep. Janice Arnold Jones, 47-33. She also holds a 14 percentage point lead over Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez, 46-32 percent, and the a similar 14 percentage point leader over Albuquerque Public Relations agency owner Doug Turner, 46-32 percent.

“Diane has developed a unique relationship with the people of New Mexico, and as Governor she’ll bring about a new way of doing business to Santa Fe. New Mexicans are looking forward – not backward – and Diane has the new ideas that will get our economy moving and help families make ends meet,” Cervini said.

Denish’s advantage comes in spite of significantly reduced popularity for Governor Bill Richardson. Only 28 percent of voters in the state approve of the job he’s doing with 63 percent disapproving. His 22 percent approval with independents and 7 percent with Republicans is not unusual for a Democratic official these days, but he’s even in negative territory within hisown party at a 42/47 spread.

"Given Obama and Richardson’s low levels of popularity Diane Denish is doing pretty well,” said Dean Debnam, President of Public Policy Polling. “But a contest with Domenici certainly looks like it could be competitive.”

Denish is easily the best known of the Gubernatorial candidates with 75 percent of voters holding an opinion about her. They break down positively by a 41/34 margin. A plurality of voters has no opinion about each of the Republicans. Domenici is viewed favorably by 27 percent, followed by 17 percent for Martinez, 12 percent for Weh and Turner, and 8 percent for Arnold-Jones.Although Barack Obama’s approval has slipped into negative territory at 45/48, both of the state’s Democratic Senators have solid 48/36 approval spreads.

PPP, a Democratic polling firm, surveyed 990 New Mexico voters from February 18th to 20th. The survey’s margin of error is +/-3.1 percent. Other factors, such as refusal to be interviewed and weighting, may introduce additional error that is more difficult to quantify.

Poll: Domenici Jr leads GOP field

While Democrat Lt. Governor Diane Denish cruises toward her party’s nomination for governor in 2010 unchallenged, the five-person Republican primary is beginning to heat up, and Pete Domenici Jr, who entered the race last, already has a huge double-digit lead in both name recognition and early voting preferences according to a public opinion poll conducted by 28 NMSU students enrolled in a Political Research Skills course instructed by Dr. Jose Z. Garcia.

The telephone survey, which calculated the responses of 444 registered Republicans statewide, from February 9-13, reports 36.3 percent of participants named Domenici without prompting and 29.3 percent of them said they were leaning toward voting for him — a nearly 18 percent lead over second place finisher Susana Martinez.

“That’s a substantial poll,” Domenici Jr told the Las Cruces Sun-News. “We’re pleased to see those results. We didn’t expect to be this far ahead this soon.”

In fact, Domenici’s likely voter support exceeded the combined voter preference totals for Martinez (11.5%,) Allen Weh (7.4%), Doug Turner (6.8%), and state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones(2.5%). A little more than 42 percent said they are still undecided.

Room for any one of the candidates to surge ahead'

Among likely Republican voters who were able to name, unprompted, at least one candidate in the race, 36 percent were able to name Domenici Jr. That was followed by former state Republican Party Chairman Allen Weh (22 percent), Doña Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez (18 percent), Albuquerque public relations firm owner Doug Turner (17 percent) and State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones of Albuquerque (8 percent).

Still, 46 percent of respondents — 203 people — weren’t able to identify a single candidate.

In his analysis of the results, which have an error rate of plus or minus 5 percent, Prof. Garcia looked at the question of whether Domenici’s lead was primarily due to high name recognition because of his father, retired six-term U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici.

To test it, Garcia looked at respondents who recognized both the names of Domenici and Martinez, who came in second in the poll, and found that 25 percent of those people preferred Domenici, while 40 percent preferred Martinez, 12 percent preferred another candidate and 12 percent were undecided.

“That, coupled with other factors, could mean this primary race could come down to Domenici and Martinez,” Garica predicted.

“The low sample size does not permit definitive conclusions, but this reduction, when combined with the relatively low performance of Weh in the preference question despite his relatively high name recognition … and the relatively low performance of Turner and Arnold, suggests—other things being equal—this is likely to become a two-person race in the next few weeks between Domenici and Martinez,” Garcia’s poll memo states.

Garica’s analysis also broke down the support by gender and ethnicity of respondents, and found that Domenici had the support of at least as many men and women as all the other candidates combined, and the support of roughly twice as many as Hispanic voters.

“Pete’s conservative positions are being well received by those now following the race,” Domenici’s campaign manager Doug Antoon wrote in a news release Sunday morning.

Garcia said he recognized the high number of undecided and believes there is still “a great deal of room for anyone of the candidates to surge ahead.”

In fact, the poll was taken before Domenici admitted to using drugs in the 70’s and 80’s and a mixed statement about his chances of winning the general election in 2010.

Poll results challenged

At least one campaign has questioned the reliability of the poll, calling Garcia a “staunch supporter” of Martinez. Another campaign manager told the Las Cruces Sun-News that the poll does not match their own internal polling.

“We disagree with the results, as Susana Martinez’s results appear inflated,” Allen Weh spokesman Chris Sanchez told the Las Cruces newspaper. “It appears there was a huge conflict of interest. We question who paid for the poll.”

But, Garcia has been upfront on the issue. He said that he purchased the survey list from Albuquerque-based Research and Polling with his own money, said that he's "not backing any of the candidates," nor consulting for any campaign.

The professor said his comments about Martinez being "a game changer," made to NMPolitics.net blogger Heath Haussamen last July, shortly after Martinez' announcement, was not an endorsement.

“I’m a registered Democrat,” Garica said. “My classes have been conducting polls like this for years.”

“It was not an endorsement at all,” he said. “I think I spoke factually, and if she ends up being a viable candidate in the Republican Party, I was right.”

Some pundits have said the poll signals problems for the Weh campaign.

He had the second highest name identification, but only place third in voter preference. So voters who know him may not have a favorable opinion of him.

Steve Kush, who moved to New Mexico from New Jersey, shortly after aiding Chris Christie’s successful campaign, told the Sun-News the polls numbers are “out-of-line with our internal numbers and appear to be regional in nature.”

“The only poll that matters is the one taken by the voters on Election Day, and I am confident the voters will respond to Representative Arnold-Jones’ message,” Kush told the Sun-News.

Turner told the newspaper he was “pleased that his name recognition numbers were as high as they were in the poll.” He said he started out the campaign at “2 percent or less,” because he’s new to the political arena.

The candidates first test will come in mid-March at the Republican Party Pre-Primary nominating convention in Albuquerque. Candidates there will need to muster at least 20 percent of the delegate vote for an automatic primary ballot position. No candidate who has not garnered that minimum has ever gone on to win the primary.

Forbes endorses Turner for governor

'New Mexico needs a leader who is honest, conservative and fiscally responsible. Doug is that leader,' Forbes says

Republican gubernatorial primary candidate Doug Turner has picked up the endorsement of Forbes Magazine CEO and financial expert Steve Forbes

“I am proud to endorse Republican candidate Doug Turner for governor,” Forbes said. “Doug knows how to manage and grow a successful business and is the type of leader who will work hard to get New Mexico back on track.”

Forbes, who has known Turner for a decade, said he is impressed with the Albuquerque public relations agency owners' "hard work ethic and commitment to doing thing the right way for the right reasons."

"New Mexico needs a leader who is honest, conservative and fiscally responsible. Doug is that leader," Forbes said. "He has a proven track record in both the public and private sectors and will bring fresh ideas to New Mexico’s government. Doug's experience as a community leader and small businessman make him exactly the kind of Governor New Mexico needs right now. He's not a career politician and I can’t think of anyone else better to get the job done."

Forbes said he is supporting Turner because, "Doug will clean up Santa Fe, slash the size of state government and put an end to the wasteful spending that is bankrupting New Mexico."

Forbes currently serves on the boards of The Heritage Foundation and The Foundation for the Defense of Democracies and has been monitoring the nation's economic woes.

“Our nation is facing hard economic times right now, and we need the kind of leaders who believe in American initiative and enterprise.” Forbes added, “New Mexico is in the same boat, and needs someone like Doug Turner who knows what it takes to help our businesses prosper and create jobs.”

Audio: Johnson says country is bankrupt

Former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson and 2010 Republican gubernatorial primary candidate Doug Turner protesting tax increases in front of state capitol

Former Governor Gary Johnson, a possible presidential candidate in 2012, blames New Mexico's current state budget deficit on both Gov. Bill Richardson and legislators, who voted for the last seven budgets.

"I'm just outraged over the fact that we're in a position that we're in today given the spending that's occurred over the last seven years," Johnson said.

Johnson says "spending has got to stop." In fact, he says it's continuing to increase around the country and in Washington.

He contends what's happened in New Mexico is "exactly what's happening on the national level."

"Spending is out of control. First and foremost spending needs to stop on the national level," Johnson said. "It's not that it's not stopping, its that it's increasing by the amount that it is . It's just crazy.... We're bankrupt."

He and GOP gubernatorial primary candidate Doug Turner hosted a tax protest rally outside of a snowy Roundhouse in Santa Fe on opening day of the 2010 New Mexico Legislature.

"This has just been ... drunken sailors spending every last nickle that they've had, and the notion that somehow we have to raise taxes to pay for the largess over the last seven years is unconscionable," Johnson said.

Johnson is hypercritical of the current administration adding over 4,500 new state employees to the payroll.

"Just tell me one area of state government that has improved as a result of 4,500 state employees," Johnson said. "Prudently I think always need to take in account a rainy day tomorrow and it just hasn't happened."

He is also adamantly opposed to an idea, being floated in Santa Fe to tap the state's permanent fund to help cover projected revenue shortfalls through 2011.

"We've tapped the state's permanent fund for the educational emergency that we had. The money didn't even actually go into that," Johnson said. ""Hey they got us here they can cut the spending to get us out of here."


The complete interview is available online here, or by tapping the play button on the bar below.



'Tax increases only reward reckless spending'

“Tax increases only reward reckless spending and make it tougher for small businesses to succeed and for families to make ends meet," said Turner. "New Mexico does not need another politician in the Governor’s office who doesn’t understand that higher taxes hurt both small business and struggling families,” continued Turner.

Turner said he believes that bureaucrats have not kept their promises to balance the state’s budget. “New Mexicans cannot afford more taxes to pay for the mistakes of career politicians. The answer to fixing broken government isn’t higher taxes. The answer is fixing broken government.” Turner stated.

Our interview with Turner is also online here, or by clicking the play button on the bar below.

Turner told us what he was hearing from people who walked or drove by the tax protest.

Pete Domenici Jr considering run for governor

Pete Domenici Jr. — the 50- year-old son of retired U.S. Sen. Pete Domenici — is seriously considering running for governor, the Albuquerque Journal is reporting.

Domenici, who like his father is a Republican, has been “contemplating a run since before the holiday season,” the Journal article states.

“I’m looking very seriously at it,” the Journal quoted him as saying. “I’m going to make my decision in a few days.”

Domenici Jr., an environmental and natural resources lawyer in Albuquerque, would become the fifth Republican in the 2010 race.

The paper reports Domenici Jr, who has not run for political office before, does not have a campaign exploratory committe and has not rasied any money for the possible race.

If he decides to run he'll face Albuquerque business owners Allen Weh and Doug Turner, state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones, and Doña Ana CountyDistrict Attorney Susana Martinez.

The state GOP pre-primary nominating convention is scheduled for March 13th, at the Albuquerque Hilton. Candidate's have get 20 percent of the delegates vote for an automatic ballot position.

Democrat Lt. Governor Diane Denish is running unopposed in her party's primary.

Eichenberg says Denish 'can't win' in 2010

Did freshman State Sen. Tim Eichenberg, D-Albuquerque, commit 'political harakiri' this weekend when he told a group that incumbent Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish can't win the 2010 gubernatorial race in New Mexico?

Last week he opted out of running for Lieutenant Governor in the 2010 Democratic primary. On Saturday, he told a bi-partisan group why he decided not to campaign for the 2nd spot on the ticket that will likely be led be Denish next year.

Photojournalist and blogger Mark Bralley attended a "Conspiracy Brews" meeting hosted on Saturday mornings by a Republican candidate for governor State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones.

This morning, Bralley posted a shocking report on his blog, What's Wrong with This Picture?

He wrote that Eichenberg told the crowd at the Southwest Learning Center in Albuquerque that due to Denish's "complacency or complicity" with the ‘pay-to-play’ atmosphere surrounding the administration of Governor Bill Richardson, and standing quietly behind him," that he was unwilling to invest a half million dollars in a 'losing campaign.'

Bralley writes Eichenberg said, "I looked her square in the eye when I said that. I told her I didn’t think she was going to win.”

Eichenberg may have made his own calculations on Denish's chances in 2010, but his statements will clearly get a harsh response from fellow Democrats.

Perhaps Eichenberg is considering changing to the Republican party after a long history of success and support in the Democratic Party of New Mexico.

He did not immediately return our call to clairfy his weekend remarks.

He may have overlooked an ethics plan that Denish unveiled this summer. She wants the legislature to consider ethics reform in January. But, Denish has recently relented it may not get attention during a 30-day session which will be focusing on a nearly 1 billion dollar budget deficit.

In July, when Denish introduced her ethics plan, said she believed “the people of New Mexico deserve a state government that is as open and honest as the people of this state.”

Her proposals are to create an independent state ethics commission and strengthen lobbyist and campaign reporting requirements. The lieutenant governor also proposed the creation of a new “sunshine portal” -- a one-stop shop on the Internet for access to government spending data and other information.

“I am committed to making the changes necessary to ensure that New Mexico’s government and elected officials enjoy the trust of New Mexico’s people,” said Denish.

The Richardson-Denish administration has been under attack by the NM State Republican Party Chairman Harvey Yates, and by all four candidates running for the 2010 GOP nomination for governor, including former party chairman Allen Weh, State Rep. Arnold-Jones, Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez, and Albuquerque public relations firm owner Doug Turner.

Denish, the current lieutenant governor, is the only Democrat campaigning for Governor.

Denish photo: Mark Bralley

Update 915p

Former Democratic Party of New Mexico Chairman Brian Colon, who is running to be on the ticket with Denish, is speaking out on the senator's comments.

"Sen. Eichenberg is entitled to his opinion, but I have been traveling the state non-stop for several weeks and have a much different perspective," Colon Said. "Democrats from each of our 33 counties are excited about Lt. Gov. Denish being on the top of the ticket and I would be honored to be on that winning ticket with her. New Mexicans are ready for Diane Denish’s leadership and agenda, which includes ethics reform and a continued emphasis on education and our economy."

Third Woman Enters 2010 Governors Race In NM. Arnold-Jones Pledges Principled Leadership

Photo: MG Bralley
Final update: 10p (with Video and Audio)

Four-term State Representative Janice Arnold-Jones (R-ABQ) officially announced her 2010 bid for the Republican Gubernatorial primary just after 4pm on Sunday at the Albuquerque Sheraton Uptown.

Arnold-Jones, who was the first lawmaker to webcast a House committee meeting last February, to the delight of journalists and constituents, said New Mexico is at a crossroads and that she wants to create new paths that will restore the public's trust in government.

Arnold-Jones, who announced her exploratory committee on June 18th, joins many government officials said government needs to be more transparent. But, Arnold-Jones appeared to set her self apart, and pledged, as governor, to make her cabinet meetings more accessible to the public.

Press the play button to hear Arnold-Jones complete remarks.



After leaving the stage, Arnold-Jones told us that her plans to transform ethics, connectivity and education in the state are "revolutionary."

She took advantage of her 20-minute speech, broadcast live online at NMGOV.TV, to lay the ground work for her campaign theme and explain her stands on a number of issues, including ethics, education, building a smarter economy and restoring public trust in government.

A bipartisan crowd of about 200 people, which included former Governor Dave Cargo, and State Senator Tim Eichenberg, as well as City Councilor Don Harris, and others, listened to Arnold-Jones address her plans on multiple issues, including:

Fulfilling our promise to our State employee retirement programs, healthcare, crime, public safety, border issues, water resources, and management of the state budget. These issues cannot, and will not be ignored.

Not all Republicans are ready to jump on board with Arnold-Jones' campaign. One of those is Bernalillo County Sheriff Darren White, who is trying to reverse lawmakers repeal of the state's death penalty.

He issued a late-afternoon statement. White said he was disappointed in her decision to join Democrats in the legislature, this past Spring, who voted to repeal capitol punishment for the most "heinous murderers, including cop-killers."

Soft-on-crime legislators should be voted out of office, not promoted. Considering, in a recent poll, eighty-six percent of all Republicans in New Mexico support the death penalty for murderers.

Indeed, Arnold-Jones will face Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez, and likely candidates Doug Turner and former NM GOP Chairman Allen Weh. Both Turner and Weh have been touring the state preparing to announce. Former U.S. Representative Heather Wilson is still on the sidelines considering a run, but her hopes may have been dashed by allegations made by the House Judiciary Committee looking at the firing of New Mexico's former U.S. Attorney David Iglesias.

Whoever wins the Republican Party nomination for Governor next June will likely face the third female candidate in the race. Democrat Lieutenant Governor Diane Denish is the only announced candidate for the 2010 Primary and she has already collected a formidable campaign treasury. And Denish isn't sitting on her "ethic reform" laurels. On July 9th, in front of the NM Supreme Court building in Santa Fe, Denish unveiled her own ethics reform plan.

Photo: MG Bralley

It did not take long for Arnold-Jones to roll out her top campaign message. She said she wants to lead the state because she says she knows voters have grown tired of New Mexico being known for graft, corruption and poor service:

It is time for New Mexico to be known for the ethical choices we make and for the responsive, innovative, quality service provided to our citizens. It is time for all of us to stand up for New Mexico and embrace our dreams. Please, join me in this revolution now! Together, connected, we will lead the nation!

Arnold-Jones said she will pursue recurring, mandatory ethics training for all public employees, from the top down, and that she would encourage and reward whistleblowers who share her goal of eliminating arcane hiring and administrative practices and other abuses.

Government, Arnold-Jones said, is meant to be a servant of the people, not a master that steadily erodes our individual liberties:

For the past seven years, we have had unbridled spending, an absentee governor, and numerous highly paid political appointees in positions of power and authority who were often ineffective, incompetent, or both.

We have also had the same old, closed-door, backroom politics, pay-to-play process churning out policies that make headlines but accomplish little. Regulation has run amok and it is stifling our entrepreneurial spirit.

This is not principled leadership and it certainly does not deserve our trust! In Santa Fe we are experiencing a moral train wreck and it is costing the taxpayer money and confidence.

To read all of Arnold-Jones remarks click here.

Arnold-Jones Plans Saturday Announcement

It was a busy Sunday in what New Mexico Political Blogger Joe Monahan calls "La Politica."

On Sunday morning Democrat Lawrence Rael officially announced he was entering the crowded race for Lieutenant Governor, and on Sunday afternoon, State Representative Janice Arnold-Jones used her Facebook Page to announce her plans to formally enter the Republican race for Governor in 2010.

Arnold-Jones said her announcement/rally will be held at the Sheraton Hotel (Uptown), on Saturday, August 30th. The two hour event event is open to the public and begins at 4pm.

Arnold-Jones, who has been exploring her options since July, will face Albuquerque PR operative Doug Turner, Dona Ana County District Attorney Susana Martinez. Former GOP Chairman Allen Weh, who announced his exploratory committee on May 5th, has been traveling the state, but has not formally announced.

Former U.S. Representative Heather Wilson, who spent July in Africa, told 770KKOB Morning Show Host Bob Clark earlier this month, that she has not ruled out running for Governor. New Mexico National Guard Brigadier General Greg Zanetti dropped out of the race on July 17th.