2010 Hispanic voter trends and stats

An analysis of new Census Bureau voting data from November 2010 shows that Hispanic turnout conformed to the pattern of recent midterm elections.

Before the 2010 election some commentators argued that the failure to address immigration would increase Hispanic turnout, others argued it would cause them to stay home. The new data shows that neither of these predictions were correct. The analysis is available at the Center for Immigration Studies.

Among the findings:

• Prior to the 2010 election, the Center for Immigration Studies projected that Hispanics would comprise 6.8 percent of the national electorate in congressional elections. The new Census Bureau data match this projection, with Hispanics comprising 6.9 percent of the vote.
• The projection was correct because it was based on the assumption that Hispanic turnout would follow past patterns and that they would be neither especially animated nor especially disengaged in 2010.
• The 31.2 percent of Hispanic citizens who voted in 2010 is very similar to the 32.2 percent who voted in the 2006 mid-term election and the 31.2 percent who voted in the 2002 mid-term election. All of these values fall within the margin of error of +/- 1.7 percentage points and indicate that 2010 was not unusual.
• In addition to the 6.9 percent of voters who identified as Hispanic in the 2010 election, 77.5 percent of voters identified as non-Hispanic white, 11.5 percent as non-Hispanic black, and 2.4 percent as non- Hispanic Asian.
• Hispanics are a much smaller share of voters than they are of the general population. In November 2010, Hispanics were 16.3 percent of the total U.S. population, 14.1 percent of the adult population, 10.1 percent of the adult citizen population, and 6.9 percent of those who voted.
• The size of the Hispanic vote varied significantly by state. In 2010, Hispanics were less than 5 percent of the vote in 39 states plus the District of Columbia, and more than 10 percent of the vote in only five states (New Mexico, California, Arizona, Texas, and Florida).
• Polling of Hispanics indicates that immigration is not one of their top issues. Like other voters, education, jobs, healthcare, and the federal deficit all rank above immigration in importance.
• This does not mean immigration is unimportant to Hispanics. It does mean it was not an issue that was important enough in 2010 to have a discernable impact on their overall turnout.
• Only 27 percent of Hispanic voters in the 2010 election were immigrants themselves (naturalized U.S. citizens) and just 14.9 percent lived in the same household as a non-citizen. The lack of direct personal experience with immigration may explain why the issue does not rank higher in importance to Hispanic voters.
• CNN's national exit polls showed that in 2010, 60 percent of Hispanics voted for Democrats and 38 percent voted for Republicans. This compares to 69 percent and 30 percent in the last mid-term election in 2006. If the failure to address immigration played a role in Hispanic voting, it seems to have helped Republicans.
• However, the increase in the Republican share of the Hispanic vote in 2010 is almost certainly related to general voter dissatisfaction with the economy and the Democrats, and it parallels gains that Republicans made among many demographic groups.

Methods and Data

The data for this analysis come from the public use file of the Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) collected by Census Bureau, which contains about 100,000 adults. The Voting and Registration supplement is conducted in November every other year after Election Day. The public-use file of this data was recently released. Among other questions, the survey asks individuals if they are registered and if they voted. The Hispanic and race questions are separate. Hispanics are individuals in the CPS who self-identify as Hispanic or Latino, which means that they or their ancestors came from a country that derives its language and culture from Spain.

The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent research institute that examines the impact of immigration on the United States.

Obama Rallies Hispanic Voters in Northern New Mexico

Governor Richardson and Barack Obama in Espanola
Photo by Mark Bralley

The 2008 presidential race took a scenic swing through Central and Northern New Mexico on Thursday.

After spending the night in Albuquerque on Wednesday, Democrat Barack Obama met with Native American Tribal Leaders in the morning, ate lunch at a locally owned and operated restaurant in the Town of Bernalillo, and then meandered north, past Santa Fe, to greet anxious supporters in Espanola at a "Change We Need" rally. Most supporters waited for more than three hours under a late, but still hot, summer sun to see their candidate for the first time in person.

AFP reporter shields his computer
with an umbrella and waits for Obama.

Just before 2 pm, Obama casually strolled onto the main stage, at the Plaza de Espanola, more than 90 minutes late.

Once comfortably settled in front of his teleprompter, Obama didn’t waste any time talking about today's hot button issue, the growing financial crisis and turmoil in the economy.

"We are in the midst of the most serious financial crisis in a generation. Perhaps the worst since the Great Depression," Obama said. "Everywhere you look, the economic news is troubling. Just this morning, we learned that the Fed had to act with central banks around the world to maintain the functioning of our financial system. But for so many Americans, it isn’t really news at all."

Obama claimed, "600,000 workers have lost their jobs since January. Home values are falling. Your paycheck doesn’t go as far as it used to. It’s never been harder to save or retire; to buy gas or groceries; and if you put it on a credit card, they’ve probably raised your rates,"

"In so many cities and towns across America, it feels as if the dream that so many generations have fought for is slowly slipping away," Obama said.

He also pledged to end the war in Iraq, and vowed he will make sure veterans are honored when they return from their service in the Middle East.

To hear Obama's address click the pink audio play arrow.



Obama was introduced by Governor Bill Richardson.



But it was Espanola Mayor Joe Maestas, who may have gotten the biggest laugh from the crowd, when he thanked them for visiting.

Onlookers without tickets!

“You just doubled the size of Espanola,” Maestas told the large crowd, estimated by the campaign to be around 10,500 people.

Not all of those who came to see Obama were inside the plaza. The campaign said they only printed 7500 tickets, but democrats who wanted to see their candidate found plenty of space, with a view, along side streets.

Obama praised Governor Bill Richardson and Congressional Candidate Ben Ray Lujan, Jr.

"Governor Richardson is one of the finest public servants of his generation," said Obama, who may believe will pick Richardson for a cabinet post if elected in November.

The New Mexico Independent reported:

Gov. Bill Richardson was clearly at ease in front of the friendly audience, joked with the large crowd about the perceived voting irregularities in Rio Arriba County, saying Rio Arriba can guarantee 102 percent of the vote for Obama after November’s election.

Obama put a smile on the face of northern Dem congressional contender Ben Ray Lujan at the start of his 35 minute speech.

Obama Calls Lujan “a hot shot."

Lujan, one of five local speakers at the Rally, said, "We need a leader who will get our country back on track, put our families first, your family first, that leader is Barack Obama. Later Obama recognized Lujan, who faces Republican Dan East, as an "up-and-coming" leader.

Si Se Puedo

Most the battleground states (Florida, Colorado, Nevada, and New Mexico) have large Hispanic populations, and Obama's trip to Espanola was aimed at shoring up their vote.

"I’m not taking a single Hispanic vote for granted in this campaign. We’re meeting with Hispanic leaders, and reaching out to Hispanic organizations, and holding Hispanic voter registration drives across America. And if you help me organize and get people to the polls to cast their votes on November 4th, then I promise you – we will win New Mexico, we will win this election, and we will change America together, " said Obama.

Salon Magazine writer Mike Madden, who attended the rally, wrote:

In the most closely contested state in the nation, it will all come down to who is better organized -- and whether Obama can get Hispanic voters to the polls.

Obama asked the Hispanic community here "to start actually voting your numbers. Start flexing your muscles. Right here in New Mexico, you'll be the difference maker. Don't stay home -- just remind yourself, si se puede. Yes we can."

During the speech, the Illinois Senator ignored one issue close to Hispanic voters, Abortion. But, earlier in the week, Obama responded to a question on abortion and Hispanic voters with the Reno Gazette-Journal.

Meanwhile, on Friday, Obama, who’s been talking with former Fed Chairman Paul Volcker, and his economic advisers says he’ll convene a meeting with his top economic advisors to discuss the passage of a Homeowner and Financial Support Act. Obama says that would establish a more stable and permanent solution than the daily improvisations that have characterized policy-making over the last year.

Obama believes his policies will provide additional capital and liquidity to the financial markets. He pledge to help families to re-structure their mortgages on more affordable terms so they can stay in their homes.

“We’ve made a good start but we need to do much, much more. We cannot forget that there are many homeowners who are in crisis through no fault of their own, and a solution that does not have them at its core is no solution at all.” that does not have them at its core is no solution at all.

NM Republican Party Chairman Allen Weh didn't waste anytime critizing Obama following the event.

His [Obama's] solution for the economy is to raise taxes on everyone, subsidize non productive parts, and torpedo a fragile economy making it worse. Obama’s never had to cover a pay roll, never had to make any executive decisions, and wants New Mexican’s to believe he’s the guy to solve our economic problems. He doesn’t have near the experience to handle the job he’s asking Americans to give him, and more and more people now understand that.

But Obama assured the crowd that if their annual income is below $250,000 their taxes would not increase "a dime."

After leaving the rally, Obama attended a private fundraiser in the North Valley. According to FBIHOP New Mexico the candidate raised another $1.7 million for his war-chest. Last month Obama raised reported over $66 million dollars, and supporters donated another $9 million at a fundraiser with Barbara Streisand earlier this week in California.

It was Obama’s 5th trip New Mexico which has been considered a battle ground state, but two new polls now show Obama-Biden with a healthy (outside the margin of error) lead in the state.

UPDATE: For more photos and videos check out Democracy for New Mexico and two flickr sets here and here.