2010 Hispanic voter trends and stats

An analysis of new Census Bureau voting data from November 2010 shows that Hispanic turnout conformed to the pattern of recent midterm elections.

Before the 2010 election some commentators argued that the failure to address immigration would increase Hispanic turnout, others argued it would cause them to stay home. The new data shows that neither of these predictions were correct. The analysis is available at the Center for Immigration Studies.

Among the findings:

• Prior to the 2010 election, the Center for Immigration Studies projected that Hispanics would comprise 6.8 percent of the national electorate in congressional elections. The new Census Bureau data match this projection, with Hispanics comprising 6.9 percent of the vote.
• The projection was correct because it was based on the assumption that Hispanic turnout would follow past patterns and that they would be neither especially animated nor especially disengaged in 2010.
• The 31.2 percent of Hispanic citizens who voted in 2010 is very similar to the 32.2 percent who voted in the 2006 mid-term election and the 31.2 percent who voted in the 2002 mid-term election. All of these values fall within the margin of error of +/- 1.7 percentage points and indicate that 2010 was not unusual.
• In addition to the 6.9 percent of voters who identified as Hispanic in the 2010 election, 77.5 percent of voters identified as non-Hispanic white, 11.5 percent as non-Hispanic black, and 2.4 percent as non- Hispanic Asian.
• Hispanics are a much smaller share of voters than they are of the general population. In November 2010, Hispanics were 16.3 percent of the total U.S. population, 14.1 percent of the adult population, 10.1 percent of the adult citizen population, and 6.9 percent of those who voted.
• The size of the Hispanic vote varied significantly by state. In 2010, Hispanics were less than 5 percent of the vote in 39 states plus the District of Columbia, and more than 10 percent of the vote in only five states (New Mexico, California, Arizona, Texas, and Florida).
• Polling of Hispanics indicates that immigration is not one of their top issues. Like other voters, education, jobs, healthcare, and the federal deficit all rank above immigration in importance.
• This does not mean immigration is unimportant to Hispanics. It does mean it was not an issue that was important enough in 2010 to have a discernable impact on their overall turnout.
• Only 27 percent of Hispanic voters in the 2010 election were immigrants themselves (naturalized U.S. citizens) and just 14.9 percent lived in the same household as a non-citizen. The lack of direct personal experience with immigration may explain why the issue does not rank higher in importance to Hispanic voters.
• CNN's national exit polls showed that in 2010, 60 percent of Hispanics voted for Democrats and 38 percent voted for Republicans. This compares to 69 percent and 30 percent in the last mid-term election in 2006. If the failure to address immigration played a role in Hispanic voting, it seems to have helped Republicans.
• However, the increase in the Republican share of the Hispanic vote in 2010 is almost certainly related to general voter dissatisfaction with the economy and the Democrats, and it parallels gains that Republicans made among many demographic groups.

Methods and Data

The data for this analysis come from the public use file of the Voting and Registration Supplement of the Current Population Survey (CPS) collected by Census Bureau, which contains about 100,000 adults. The Voting and Registration supplement is conducted in November every other year after Election Day. The public-use file of this data was recently released. Among other questions, the survey asks individuals if they are registered and if they voted. The Hispanic and race questions are separate. Hispanics are individuals in the CPS who self-identify as Hispanic or Latino, which means that they or their ancestors came from a country that derives its language and culture from Spain.

The Center for Immigration Studies is an independent research institute that examines the impact of immigration on the United States.

Heinrich launches U.S. Senate bid to replace Bingaman

The Decision from Martin Heinrich on Vimeo.

The speculation is over, U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich has decided to run for the U.S. Senate. He officially launched his campaign today on his Facebook page and campaign website.

Ahead of meeting with reporters, he released the following statement:

I am excited to announce today that I am a candidate for the United States Senate. Details to come on my listening tour across New Mexico. I hope you’ll join me on this journey to provide everyone in this state with a prosperous future worthy of our efforts and our values.

Heinrich is expected to meet with reporters at 1pm today following a Cesar Chavez day march at the National Hispanic Cultural Center in Albuquerque. We'll be on site and bring you pictures, video and comments from Rep. Heinrich later today.

Heinrich, who is in his second term as a U.S. Representative, is the first Democrat to announce his plans. State Auditor Hector Balderas, State Treasurer James Lewis, former Lt. Governor Diane Denish are reportedly considering their options.

Republican Heather Wilson announced her 2012 bid in March. Lt. Gov. John Sanchez is expected to make his plans known this month.

Ahead of Heinrich's announcement, Sen. Eric Griego said yesterday he was launching an exploratory committee and is considering a bid to replace Heinrich.

Republican Janice Arnold-Jones has been considering a primary bid for Heinrich's seat since last month -- and spent last week in Washington looking for financial support.

City Councilor Dan Lewis is expected to announce his bid for the CD-1 Seat on Sunday at the Hotel Albuquerque around 3pm.

The son of an electrician and a factory worker, Heinrich has been a committed advocate for New Mexico’s middle class families. He said he wants to "create an environment for New Mexico’s small businesses to thrive and grow, creating good jobs for our communities."

Heinrich has been a champion for clean energy economy and treasured public lands. As a member of the Armed Services Committee, Martin saved over 1,000 jobs at Kirtland Air Force Base.

Heinrich has said his campaign for the U.S. Senate will focus on helping New Mexico’s economy grow "for everyone and not just the special interests."

Prior to being elected to Congress in 2008, Martin served as Albuquerque City Council President and as Natural Resources Trustee for the State of New Mexico.

He and his wife Julie are raising their two sons in Albuquerque.

Sen. Eric Griego considers 2012 Congressional Campaign

Former Albuquerque City Councilor and current NM Sen. Eric Griego tells us he's considering a 2012 congressional campaign, but is waiting for current Rep. Martin Heinrich to make a final decision on his own 2012 U.S. Senate campaign.

Video Post: Balderas prepares U.S. Senate bid

While there's no timetable to formally announce a bid for the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by five-term U.S. Sen. Jeff Bingaman, New Mexico State Auditor Hector Balderas, 37, appears closer to making the commitment -- and soon.

Today, during an informal afternoon coffee interview with us, Balderas said New Mexicans are looking for the next generation of leaders to head to Washington, D.C., and he's hoping his record of fiscal discipline and work on government accountability issues, both inside the auditor's office and in the NM House of Representatives, will appeal to those voters.



An exciting time

On Saturday, inside the Roundhouse, Balderas confirmed with us that he has been consulting with his family, a team of his political advisers, and the Democratic Senate Campaign Committee about the 2012 race and is close to making a decision about jumping into the race.

“I'm strongly considering entering the United States Senate race from New Mexico,” Balderas told us on Saturday.

In a time of fiscal crisis, Balderas said voters want strong leadership on issues of accountability and government reform. He said he has a record of both, including exposing statewide corruption, and uncovering a massive embezzlement in Jemez Springs in 2009.

Balderas told us he would take those same principals with him to Washington.

" I think that there has to be fiscal reform. Right now you see President Barack Obama and the legislature at the federal level grappling with this issue,” Balderas told off camera on Saturday.
"The choices and investments we make now will effect generations to come, so I will make fiscal accountability one of my top priorities.”

He also wants to make education reform another key campaign issue.

“I wouldn't be where I am today without educational opportunities,” Balderas said.

Passing the political torch

Balderas said he’s been getting favorable feedback and the buzz seems to be increasing, but Balderas said Democrats have to be concerned about holding on to Bingaman’s seat.

“New Mexicans at every kitchen or coffee table need to think about what direction do they want to go. It is a real opportunity to chose a different type of leader in New Mexico,” Balderas told me in Santa Fe before the video interview.

Republican contenders could include Lt. Gov. John Sanchez, U.S. Rep. Steve Pearce, former Rep. Heather Wilson, and former Gov. Gary Johnson. Two relatively unknowns have already launched their republican bids for the seat.

Democrat pundits have focused on Heinrich, Rep. Ben Ray Lujan, former Lt. Gov. Diane Denish, former Gov. Bill Richardson, State Treasurer James B. Lewis, and former Albuquerque Mayor Marty Chavez, along with Balderas.

If elected, Balderas would join two other Hispanics in the Senate. Florida is represented by Republican Mark Rubio, who was elected last year. New Jersey Sen. Robert Menedez, a Democrat, was appointed in 2005 by then Gov. Jon Corzine and elected outright in 2006 to a full six-year term.

Recovery Act - one year later

Last week, while Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid was proposing to trim back a proposed jobs bill from $85 billion to $15 billion over 10 years, U.S. Rep. Martin Heinrich was home – in his 1st Congressional District — touring a low-income housing construction site that will create or retain 100 jobs for some workers who have been collecting unemployment for months.

Heinrich’s visit to NewLife Homes, an affordable housing project, which will produce 48 units for individuals with mental and physical disabilities, some of whom are transitioning out of homelessness, highlighted how money from the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act is being used in New Mexico. ARRA was signed one year ago this week — on February 17, 2009.

Heinrich told us that he supports a provision in the jobs bill that would offer tax credits to employers who hire workers who have been unemployed for at least 60 days. He says it could prompt businesses to move forward with hiring.

Business investment will improve economy

Heinrich’s Republican challenger, Jon Barela, is also talking about jobs.

He is an advocate for creating a better regulatory environment for industry and argues against tax increases.

“During these tough and uncertain economic times the last thing Congress needs to do is place more burden on individuals and small businesses,” Barela said. “Allowing individuals and small businesses to keep more of their money will allow them the opportunity to invest and spend and improve the current economic downturn.”

Barela contends that "increased taxes will compel small businesses to reduce their workforce when our nation is already experiencing high rates of unemployment.”

“Conversely, providing small businesses tax incentives will allow them to increase their workforce,” Barela said.

Jobs: Issue #1

With congressional mid-term elections this fall, deal making across party lines looks to be difficult on many issues, but it appears a jobs bill could be an exception, given the urgency of unemployment as a voter concern.

Heinrich said the final jobs bill should focus on “the most important priorities – creating good-paying jobs, helping the middle class and making targeted, responsible investments in our future.”

“It must demand transparency and accountability to guarantee all taxpayer money is used properly,” Heinrich said. “By focusing on job creation, energy independent and middle-class tax relief, we can reenergize our economy and make it work for everyone.”

Swinging a hammer again

Now, with the help of ARRA funds, Julian Gomez, a 36-year veteran of the construction industry, is wearing his hard hat again.

He was a victim of the current economic downturn when Gerald Martin Construction company was told the NewLife Homes project had been put on hold.

Now the general contractor is re-hiring, and Gomez told us that he is ready to swing his hammer again.



Now Gomez said he is hearing there is “a lot of working coming up,” and he hopes the worst is behind him.

Video: Gardner responds to Richardson's speech