What's Vegas Saying About March Madness?

Who’s the best team? Who shouldn’t have made the tournament? Which lower seed is favored? Who are the Sharps backing?

If understood properly, Las Vegas odds offer compelling insight into the NCAA Basketball Tournament. RJ Bell of Pregame.com provided the following tidbits:

According to Las Vegas, the worst at-large team in the tournament is Dayton, which would be an underdog on a neutral floor against San Diego State, Penn State, St. Mary’s, Virginia Tech, Creighton, Florida, and Notre Dame – all teams that did not make the tournament.

Wisconsin, questioned by many as a tournament team, would likely be favored against any team not in the tournament.

North Carolina would be favored against any team in the country. Pitt would be favored against any team except the Tar Heels.

Three lower seeded teams are favored over higher seeded teams: #12 Arizona is a 1-point favorite over #5 Utah; #10 USC is a 2-point favorite over #7 Boston College; #9 Tennessee is a 2-point favorite over Oklahoma State.

North Carolina is the biggest first-round favorite at 27 points over Radford. Duke is the biggest favorite that is not a #1 seed, 22 points over Binghamton.

Two teams have received heavy action from the Sharps: UCLA opened as a 10-point favorite over VCU, but heavy underdog action has moved the line to 7. Illinois opened as a 6 point favorite over W. Kentucky, but heavy underdog action has moved the line to 4.

Pregame.com is a news organization which consults experts inside and outside of Las Vegas. Licensed Nevada oddsmakers and gaming executives are unable to communicate with complete candor due to political considerations. Unrestricted by such limitations, Pregame.com provides the clearest estimate of the true sports betting market.

For all of RJ Bell’s unique March Madness facts and tips, visit here.

Eye Popping Possibilities for NCAA Tournament Brackets.

My friend, and PR client, RJ Bell, the founder of Pregame.com ,is thinking big. Really big. Like to infinity and beyond.

This week over 40 million Americans in offices across the country are expected to fill out brackets for the 2009 NCAA Tournament. The purpose is to pick the most winners, but many dream of picking the perfect bracket (not to mention the many contests associated with this feat).

RJ sent me this breakdown of the stunning odds against selecting the perfect bracket in your office pool. It's a real improbability because:

There are 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 possible brackets. That's the number nine follow by eighteen zeros. That's over 9.2 quintillion.

Some examples of just how big this number is:

• If everyone on the planet each randomly filled out a bracket, the odds would be over ONE BILLION to 1 against any person having a perfect bracket.
• If one bracket per second was filled out, it would take 292 TRILLION years to fill out all possible brackets (that's 20 times longer than the universe has existed). If all the people on earth filled out one bracket per second, it would take over 43 years to fill out every possible bracket.
• If all possible brackets were stacked on top of each other (on standard paper), the pile would reach from the moon and back over 1.1 million times.
• All possible brackets (on standard paper) would weigh 90,000 times more than every man, women, and child on earth combined.
• Even if a person had a 90% chance of winning each game he picked, his odds would still be 763 to 1 against picking a perfect bracket.

Calculation assumptions: The odds of winning each game is assumed to be 50%. The odds do not consider the play-in game, since most brackets ignore this game - consider that game would double all the numbers above.

For all of RJ Bell's unique March Madness reporting, visit: http://pregame.com/forums/blogs/rj-bell/default.aspx

More money, about $12 Billion dollars, will be wagered on this month's college basketball tournament than on the Super Bowl. Simply, no other sporting generates more action.

Check out Pregame.com Founder RJ Bell's blueprint and 11 history tested rules which are proven to help anyone improve, and often even win, their bracket pool.

1st round rules:
Pick no more than two seeds worse than #12. #16 seeds are 0 for 96 in the modern era (since 1985). #15 seeds are 4 for 96. #13 and #14 seeds combined win only 18% of first round games.

Don't be shy about picking upsets with #12 through #9 seeds. Give special consideration to picking #12 seeds: they have won 13 of 32 matchups vs. #5 seeds the last eight years. #9 seeds have won over half their games (54%) vs. #8 seeds.

2nd round rules:
Advance #1 seeds almost automatically into the 3rd round. #1 seeds win their first two games 87% of the time.

Keep advancing the #12 and #10 seeds you picked to win in Round One. These teams win over half the time in Round Two.

Seeds lower than #12 DO NOT win in the 2nd round. Only 6 of 368 teams that have advanced past Round 2 were seeded lower than #12.

Sweet 16 round rules:
Advance exactly three #1 seeds into the Elite 8. There's no reason to buck the math: nearly 72% of #1 seeds advance into the 4th round (that's a higher percentage than #5 seeds who win a single game)!

Advance no team lower than a #11 seed into the Elite 8 (22 have made it to the Sweet 16, but only 1 has ever advanced).

Elite Eight round rules:
Advance exactly ONE or TWO #1 seeds to the Final Four. Amazingly, exactly one or two #1 seeds have made the Final Four 19 of the last 24 years. Last year was the first with all four #1 seeds making the Final Four; do not allow a single season fluke to outweigh over two decades of history.

Advance no team lower than a #8 seed to the Final Four. Only 2 of 96 Final Four teams have been seeded lower than #8.

Final Four round rules: Advance NO team below a 6th seed to the Championship game. Not a single one has made it in the last 23 years.

Championship game rules:
Pick a #4 seed or higher to win it all. For 20 straight years the champion has been a #4 seed or higher!

For all of RJ Bell's unique March Madness reporting, visit: http://pregame.com/forums/blogs/rj-bell/default.aspx